2003 Georgia Crop Acreage and Market Comment

Don Shurley, Nathan Smith, and George Shumaker

According to USDA's Acreage report issued on June 30^th, Georgia farmers planted more corn, soybeans, tobacco, and wheat and less cotton, grain sorghum, and peanuts for 2003. Acreage planted to cotton and peanuts, the state's 2 largest row crops, is down 3.4% and 2% respectively. Some of this acreage was shifted to corn and soybeans. Corn acreage has trended up in recent years while cotton and peanut acreage has held mostly steady to down slightly. A 20,000 acre increase in soybean planting is the largest percentage increase for any crop. Excluding wheat (actually planted in 2002), total acreage planted to the remaining six major cash row crops in 2003 is 2.529 million acres, 12,500 acres less than 2002.

The acreage estimates for corn, cotton, and peanuts did not change from USDA's Prospective Plantings forecast in March. This is a little surprising given the rains that hampered timely planting of corn around the state and the fact that cotton acreage reported by boll weevil eradication program enrollment was already 1.46 million acres as of mid-May. Peanut acreage was thought to have increased with shifts to the eastern and southwestern region of the state outweighing a decline in the central region of the state.

From a national perspective, cotton acres planted for 2003 is estimated by USDA to be 13.92 million acres- only slightly below last year but, more importantly, 328,000 acres less than USDA's March estimate. Given this reduction in expected acreage and the poor condition of the crop in many parts of the country, this should be bullish for prices.

US peanut acres are down 7.5% to 1.256 million acres. A significant decrease is seen in less productive areas of the Southwest and Virginia-type producing areas in the Virginia-Carolina region. Despite fewer acres, 2003 production may not be much different than 2002 if crop conditions continue to remain above last year.