July Cattle Numbers and Outlook

The mid-year total cattle and calf inventory (released July 17) showed a continued decline in U.S. cattle numbers. Low cattle prices and unfavorable weather in recent years have caused cow-calf producers to reduce breeding animal numbers. The 1998 calf crop was estimated to be 37.9 million head (2 percent smaller than 1997's), the smallest since 1951. The mid-year all cattle and calf count was 107 million head, down 2 percent from a year ago. The number of beef cows also was down 2 percent at 34.1 million head, the smallest July 1 count since 1992. The number of dairy cows in the U.S. also declined.

The number of heifers held for beef cow replacement purposes was 6 percent below a year earlier and paralleled the large number of heifers that have entered feedlots and shown-up in fed cattle slaughter. The reported number of heifers held for replacement purposes was the smallest for July 1 since 1989.

The report indicated that the supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots remained well below a year ago (down about 1 million head), as of July 1. The declines in the cowherd suggest that feeder cattle supplies will likely continue to decline for several years. The price enhancing effects of lower cattle supplies may be more apparent in 1999 than they will be in 1998. This was expected to be the case based on past cattle price cycles. Further year-to-year declines in the cattle inventory are expected to be reported on January 1, 1999, and the cattle numbers are not expected to bottom before January 1, 2000.

(John McKissick, Professor and Extension Economist - Livestock, The University of Georgia)

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