Grain Outlook

Wheat Market Situation. As Georgia farmers complete the wheat harvest across the state they wonder what happened to prices. Little did we know the high price for the growing season would appear on January 11th at $3.16 per bushel. Current futures price in late May were under $2.60 providing cash bids near $2.25. Can prices go lower still? Yes, nearby futures prices have been in a trading range between $3.00 and $2.25 since June of 1998. We could see prices lower in the near term as the main harvest pressure is yet to hit the markets and spring plantings were larger than expectations. Longer term, prices should test the upper end of the range.

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Corn Market Overview. December corn futures continue a free fall toward the $2.00 level. Generally good growing conditions and a weakening export demand point toward large carry out stocks. Those higher stocks estimates will be near year ago levels. Prices tend to be correlated with stocks and last year's seasonal average price was $1.82 per bushel. Corn futures will continue to fall unless there is a weather threat to the crop this summer.

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Soybean Market Perspective. November soybean futures have found a trading range between $4.40 and $4.20 while the traders await further crop development. Expectations are for increased acreage over a year ago levels with perhaps more due to foregone corn in the upper Midwest. That forebodes a very large crop, large supplies and increased carryout stocks that are expected to be near 500 million bushels. Season average prices are projected to be near $4.20 so we can expect prices to fall below that level for sometime this fall. (George Shumaker)

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