Update on Pork Production and Pork Trade

PORK PRODUCTION LARGE

    Federally Inspected (FI) pork production has been mostly above a yearearlier since September of 1996. For January, weekly pork production averaged about 16 percent more than 1997's. Increased pork tonnage has been due to two factors, larger slaughter numbers and heavier dressed weights.
    FI hog slaughter has been above a year ago since mid-October 1997. During the first few weeks of 1998 slaughter reached levels that were more than 20 percent above 1997's. By mid-January slaughter levels were moderating, butwere still 6 to 11 percent higher than 1997's. Given the number of hogs inthe U.S., a record large annual U.S. hog slaughter is projected for 1998.
    Besides the increased slaughter levels, pork production is also being affected by high dressed weights. The average hog dressed weight has been at or above 190 pounds since the last week in October 1997. Hog dressed weights have posted year-to-year increases every week since the last week in December 1996. For 1998, hog weights are expected to be record large. So, U.S. pork production will be record large in 1998. However, due to the increases in population and the increases in exports over the last several years, per capita consumption of pork will not be record large.

PORK EXPORTS ADD DOLLARS TO U.S. PRODUCER'S WALLETS

    For the first time ever, the U.S. exported over 1 billion pounds of pork last year. U.S. pork exports during 1997 totaled 1.043613 billion pounds, 7.6% more than in 1996. Exports accounted for 6.05% of 1997 U.S. pork production compared to 5.57% in 1996 and only 1.56% in 1990. This was the seventh consecutive yearly increase in U.S. pork exports.
    Exports to Japan totaled 461.946 million pounds or 44.26% of total U.S. pork exports. This was the smallest export share for Japan since 1991. Exports to Japan were down 7.7% from 1996.
    U.S. pork exports to Canada increased by 32.8% last year. Canada was the destination for 12.0% of U.S. pork exports, their largest share in over a decade.
    Pork exports to Mexico increased by 24.6% last year to reach 86.988 million pounds. Mexico purchased 8.34% of U.S. pork exports. Exports to the Caribbean increased by 2.23% compared to1996. Exports to other countries (not Japan, Canada, Mexico orthe Caribbean) grew by 21.79% in 1997. Shipments to Russia account for the biggest share of this other category.
    After two years of decline, imports of pork into the U.S.increased by 2.1% during 1997. The U.S. imported 0.632095 billion pounds of pork last year. This was an amount equal to3.67% of domestic production. By far the biggest source for U.S.pork imports was Canada which accounted for 68.7% of all the pork entering the U.S. Denmark supplied 19.6% of the pork imported into the U.S. last year.
    On net, U.S. pork exports exceeded imports by 411.5 million pounds last year. This was the largest net export position ever for the U.S. pork industry. The improvement in net exports from1996 to 1997 was enough to add about $1.50 to the value of each market hog sold by American farmers in 1997.
    Due to the poor economic conditions in Asia, pork exports are not projected to grow at all in 1998 by USDA. So the large pork production increase will have to be funneled through the domestic markets.

John C. McKissick (University of Georgia), Ron Plains (University of Missouri) and the Livestock Information Center. Feb. 23, 1998

Back to Hog Outlook