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Corn Market Situation. The U.S. corn crop was planted in record time this year due to the dry conditions that have prevailed over much of the eastern states. The rapid planting pace poses a dilemma for market traders as it sets up the potential for a record yield IF Mother Natures provides timely rains during the growing season. A down side to rapid planting pace is that a large percent of the crop will approach pollination at the same time so if rains do not come timely, then yields could drop sharply. This pro-con argument will keep the markets edgy with gap moves and large swings as weather changes. Plan on using rallies over the next month to complete sales of corn that needs to go to market off the harvester. (George Shumaker)

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Soybean Market Outlook. Soybean futures have also shown a good deal of two sided trading with charts showing gaps and wide price swings based mostly on weather concerns. The long term trend remains higher but the upward momentum has slowed as planting moves steadily ahead. Use any move toward to $6.00 level, basis the November futures contract to forward price 2000 soybeans. (George Shumaker)

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Wheat Market Outlook. The recent run up in wheat futures has apparently run out of steam with harvest rapidly approaching. The best strategy still appears to be to sell the crop at harvest and re-enter the market with the purchase of a call option. I believe there will be the opportunity for a good post harvest rally in wheat futures. (George Shumaker)

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Dairy Outlook. The April farmer price for Class III or Cheese milk was the lowest cheese-milk price since July 1978. The price of $9.41 per cwt. is equal to 81 cents per gallon. Over the last 7 months, the Class III price has averaged $9.92, down $4.39 from the same period last year. Current futures prices suggest an average Class III price of $11.07 for the year, about the same level as in 1991.

On an national basis, the dairy herd continues to expand. According to USDA's estimates there are 7.79 million head in the dairy herd, which is 66,000 more cows than were in the dairy herd a year ago. (Bill Thomas)

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Large Growth In U.S. Meat and Poultry Trade. Growth in U.S. meat and poultry trade was larger than anticipated during the first quarter of 2000. Imports and exports of all red meats posted significant year-to-year increases in the first quarter. U.S. poultry exports also rebounded. Beef imports in the first quarter were up 17 percent from the first quarter of 1999. Except for Argentina (down 2 percent), all major foreign suppliers shipped more beef to the U.S. than a year ago during the first quarter of 2000. The majority of the increase in U.S. beef imports came from New Zealand (up 48 percent).

Excluding the very large year-to-year increase in reported U.S. beef exports to Russia (most of which actually took place in late 1999), U.S. beef exports in the first quarter of 2000 were 10 percent more than 1999's. The dominant factors in this increase were exports to Mexico (up 29.5 percent) and Korea (up 25 percent). Only U.S. beef exports to the Caribbean posted a year-to-year decline.

First quarter imports of pork into the U.S. were 22 percent greater than a year ago. The majority of the increase came from Canada (up 27 percent). But all major foreign suppliers of pork to the U.S. posted first quarter year-to-year increases in imports of pork to the U.S.

Excluding the extremely large increase in reported U.S. pork exports to Russia, first quarter U.S. pork exports were 21 percent above 1999's. In terms of tonnage, the bulk of these increased U.S. pork exports went to Mexico (up 116 percent) and Japan (up 16 percent).

For the first quarter of 2000, U.S. broiler exports were up 20 percent from a year ago and turkey exports were up 22 percent (excluding the large year-to-year increase reported in U.S. poultry exports to Russia). Japan (down 13 percent) was the only major destination for U.S. broiler exports that posted a year-to-year decline. Korea (down 44 percent) was the only major U.S. turkey export destination that posted a year-to-year decline in the first quarter. (John McKissick)

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Cattle Culling and the Drought. Most Georgia cattle producers are faced with little or no spring hay and even less in the way of pasture. The question for most cattlemen is "should I sell cows or buy feed?". The number of cattle sold on Georgia auction markets during most weeks in May was about 1000 to 2000 head higher than last year. In general, buying feed will not pay. Productive cows and very light calves should take priority on limited feed supplies. Cull non- productive cows, wean and sell calves at the lightest weights possible. However, try to hold a productive cow herd together as the long term price outlook remains favorable. Due to cuts already made to the US beef cow herds and an improved beef demand, the next 3 years should bring very good calf prices. Expect this fall's calf market to be about $10/cwt. higher than last fall. The fall of 2001 will likely bring another $10/cwt. gain. (John McKissick)

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