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Five Years Graphical Analysis of Selected
Vegetable Average Prices Esendugue Greg Fonsah Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Fruits & Vegetables |
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Economic theory stipulates that the forces of demand and supply determine the price of a commodity. The theory of perfect competition further states that a farmer maximizes profit by producing the output at which marginal revenue equals marginal cost. Profits are what attract farmers to invest in the production of a particular vegetable such as snap beans, cucumber, watermelons, peppers, to name a few. If the production of a given vegetable by farmers increases the overall supply, then the price will fall. Farmers can maximize their profits when there is a high demand for their vegetable and limited supplies. It is therefore imperative that fresh vegetable farmers pay particular attention to the price trend. Thus price trend is an excellent tool for planning purposes and decision making which is the objective of this study. Bean, Snap There was a slight price decline from 1999 to 2000 and a continuous increase there after, with a peak in 2003. This price trend is expected to increase in 2004 especially if any drastic unforeseen contingency such as adverse weather, pest and disease etc. affects production and or supply. The maximum price for snap beans in 2003 was $23.75 and was recorded on June 30 while the minimum price was $6.00 per bushel on May 19. Average f.o.b. price per bushel for 2 springs + 1 fall crop season was $19.62 in 2003 compared with $16.79 in 2002. Fig
1: Snap Beans: Five years Average Price, 1999 - 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh
Fruit and Vegetable, National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Cabbage prices drop from $5.01 per 1 ¾ bushel crate in 1999 to $4.86 in 2000. Thereafter 17.4% and 35.0% price increase were recorded from 2002 and 2003 compared to 2001. Fig 2 shows 2002 and 2003 price per 1 ¾ bushel crate at $7.01 and $8.05 respectively compare to $5.97 in 2001. Fig. 2: Cabbage:
Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh
Fruit and Vegetable, National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Cantaloupe prices have been increasing rapidly since 1999 when it was 55 cents each to 2003 at 116.13 cents each. The five years average price of 46.06 cents was slightly below 1999 price. There was no change in price in 2000 and 2001 when prices stagnated at 80 cents each (fig 3). Price per pound has increased in the past five years from 11 cents in 1999 to 23.23 cents in 2003. This price incentive is expected to trigger increase in production and eventually reduce prices if not controlled. Fig. 3: Cantaloupe: Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh
Fruit and Vegetable, National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Carrots prices have been on the rise. The maximum price for 2003 was $15 per 48-1 pound film-bags in sacks recorded on June 09 while the minimum price was $9 recorded on March 03. The five years average price was $7.77 per 48-1 pound film-bags. However, carrots price have been slightly downward slopping until 2003 when there was a drastic jump from $5.93 in 2002 to $10.30 per 48-1 pound film-bags for medium-large in 2003 (fig. 4). Fig. 4: Carrots: Five years Average Price, 1999
- 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh
Fruit and Vegetable, National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Sweet corn prices follow
a zig-zag upward trend (fig 5). Year 2000 price was the lowest in five years
at $5.30 per 4-4 ½ doz (including icing). The best price thus far was in 2003 at $9.07. The five years average was $7.07 with the maximum
and minimum averages at $9.07 and $5.30 respectively. Spring prices i.e. June 02 – July 14 were relatively
lower than fall (September 22 – October 27). For instance, the average five years maximum
for
Fig.5: Sweet Corn: Five years Average Price, 1999 - 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh
Fruit and Vegetable, National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Except year 2000, cucumber
prices have been on a consistent rise.
The peak price of $15.93 per 1 1/9 bushel was recorded in 2003. Contrary to sweet corn, cucumber spring harvest
commands relatively better prices. For
example, spring 2003 price was $19.58 per 1 1/9 bushel compared to $11.00
for fall. The five years average
blended prices were $10.85, $11.28 for spring and $9.63 for fall season. At the same time, the five years average maximum
prices were $15.93, $19.58 for spring and $15.00 for fall while the
five year average minimum prices were $11.45, $10.42 for spring and
$8.77 for fall respectively. Fig 6: Cucumber: Five years Average Price, 1999 - 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh
Fruit and Vegetable, National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Eggplant prices started improving in 2000 and peaked in 2001 at $10.98 per 1 1/9 bushel (fig.7). However, there was 23.4% price decrease in 2002 and a subsequent 19.1 % price increase in 2003. The five years average price was $8.51 and five years maximum and minimum were $10.98 and $5.95 respectively. Fig. 7: Eggplants: Five years Average Price, 1999 - 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F, Okra price was at its peak
in 2003 at $15.99 per ½ bushel, Fig 8: Okra:
Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Year 2001 was the least favorable pepper prices as it dropped to $7.50 per 1 1/9 bushel. The best and peak year in the past five year was in 2003. Growers received $12.90 per 1 1/9 bushel (fig.9). The five years average price was $10.22.
Fig. 9: Pepper: Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Yellow squash prices for the past five years have been consistent until 2001 when 24.7% increase was realized from 2001 to 2002 and 26.8 % additional increase from 2002 to 2003 (fig 10). Five year average yellow squash price was $11.33 and the blended price was $9.07. Yellow squash prices for spring 2002 and 2003 were $12.75 and $15.46, thus higher than fall 2002 and 2003 prices, $9.28 and $10.75 per ¾ bushel respectively. Fig. 10: Squash (Yellow): Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Sweet potatoes prices have been increasing consistently in the past four year, i.e. from 1999 to 2002. However, there was 80.1% increase in price in 2003 (fig 11). Five years average price was $12.20 while the blended price was $8.53. Fig 11: Sweet Potatoes: Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Tomatoes prices have been
fluctuating until 2001 when it has maintained a steady rise. There was 55.9 % increase in price from 2001
to 2002 and 25 % increase from 2002 to 2003 (fig 12). The average spring (June 02- Fig. 12: Tomatoes: Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Vidalia Onions obtained
a surprisingly higher price in 2003, $24.04 for no. 1, 40 pound carton
jumbo, up 32.2 % from previous year at $18.18.
After the 24.9% drop in prices in 2000, prices for the subsequent
years have consistently been on the rise (fig 13).
Thus far, the five years average price was $17.36 and blended
price was $15.92. Fig. 13: Vidalia Onions: Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Watermelon is the only vegetable that experience a drastic fall in price in 2003. In 2002 the f.o.b. price per cwt for an average of 20-24 Lbs was $7.75 compared to $3.17 in 2003 (fig 14). The five years average was $5.92. Excess production could partially be blamed for the 44.5% price decrease in 2003. Fig: 14: Watermelon: Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable,
National Shipping Point Trends, 2202 Monterey St., Suite 104-F,
Zucchini prices were downward slopping for the past three years but skyrocketed in 2003 to $11.06 from $7.50 (per f.o.b. ½ - 5/9 bushel small sizes) the previous year (fig 15). Historically, fall (September 16 – November 04) prices have always been higher than spring (May 19 – June 30) until 2003 when the trend was reversed. The five years average price was $8.25 while the spring and fall average prices were $6.78 and $7.88 respectively. The average five years blended price was $6.40, whereas the spring and fall blended prices were $5.76 and $6.7 respectively. Fig. 15: Zucchini (Squash): Five years Average Price, 1999 – 2003
Source: USDA/AMS, Fresh Fruit and Vegetable
(1999-2003). Various
Volumes. Conclusion All the selected vegetables in this study show an increasing price trend especially in 2003. The only exception was watermelons that showed a drastic falling price in 2003. Excess production may be partially blamed. Fresh market prices are important tool for planning and decision making. It is an excellent guide for farmers to determine when and how much to produce. Since no individual farmer can influence prices, and no one can predict weather or the outbreak of any particular pest and disease during a particular planting season, the decision to increase or decrease planting acres is a mere gamble. Although financial analysts say “high risk is associated with high returns”, the repercussions could have adverse effect to a risk-taking farmer. References
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